Dealing with the unexpected
How could what you don’t know be far more relevant than what you do know? According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan, the world is dominated by the extreme, unknown and the very improbable. If he is right then what you know won’t help you in navigating life’s challenges and by inference challenges, major challenges at that, will come when least expected.
If you could react to the unexpected chapters in your life with the benefit of prevision (my word for seeing something before it happens) this would undoubtedly lead you to a more rewarding and peaceful journey. However the sad reality is that one just never knows what’s just around the corner.
Who could have predicted 9/11 or more recently the scale of the global economic crisis that we find ourselves in with the European implications right on our doorstep? In 2011 there have been earthquakes in Japan, floods in Australia, political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa. All were unexpected and all of them of such magnitude but no-one could have predicted them these events are all examples of Black Swans. In your personal and more intimate world we find sickness in our families, infidelity in relationships, business failure and redundancies ready to greet you without warning.
Taleb defines a Black Swan as “an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”
I don’t know if you are going through a Black Swan experience right now, or have been for the last few years. Are you in business, do you have children, close friends or maybe a sibling or two –it just takes a bit of catastrophic news from any of these sources outside regular expectations to have an extreme impact on your life. We are all vulnerable to the unexpected. This may all sound very gloomy and if there are events around the corner that can’t be predicted wouldn’t it be better to get on with life and not worry ourselves about them? I firmly believe in being positive and speaking positivity into my life but this doesn’t negate the need to confront what Taleb describes.
As we are about to enter the last 60 days of 2011 we still have an opportunity to end the year with some of those goals that we set at the beginning of the year tucked under our belts. Many of us at the beginning of the year were so enthusiastic about what we could achieve this year but then your Black Swan came to haunt you and just knocked the wind out of your sails.
Our goals are important because they provide a road map and with enough discipline we achieve much more out of life than when we just live aimlessly. If we are to assume that there will be knocks along the way, how we react to the knocks is what is important. Will they take you out or will you bounce straight back? Will you maintain your core disciplines and standards or will you compromise and ultimately accept mediocrity.
In spite of the problems that we all go through, I encourage you to reminisce on life itself and all the good times. We all have so much to be grateful for, life has so much to offer and we should all count our blessings. Even in the most extreme circumstances one can find a positive perspective to take. So is it about time that you moved past your set –back? Life is a journey so let us live it with passion and integrity. Life is precious let’s honour the creator and get in alignment with his purpose for our lives. Your life has meaning so let’s leave legacy and love wherever we go.
Dealing with the unexpected whether in business, socially or in our personal lives will require you to be true to whom you are and take time to consider the big picture. Until next month I pray favour, opportunity and blessings in your life.
